Sentencing Bill (2025)

England and Wales face a prison population close to record highs and capacity near breaking point. Without reform, demand is projected to exceed supply by 9,500 places by early 2028. Building more prisons cannot solve this: the system is already overcrowded, victims face long delays for justice, and people leaving prison reoffend at high rates.

The government’s Sentencing Bill responds to an Independent Sentencing Review designed to prevent future capacity crises. We welcome its central aim: reducing reliance on short prison sentences, which have a poor record in cutting reoffending, and reserving custody for the most serious offences. These measures, alongside changes to release points, recalls and remand, could lower demand for places by an estimated 7,500 by 2028—though the prison population is still forecast to rise by around 2,000 by 2029.

For these reforms to succeed, probation and community services must be properly staffed and funded. We also urge Parliament to scrutinise key risks: earned release must not entrench racial or age-related inequalities; electronic tagging should be used only where evidence shows it works; and giving ministers a veto over Sentencing Council guidelines threatens judicial independence.

With sustained investment and political will, the bill could mark the first step toward a fairer, safer justice system.